[AT] Better build a bigger shed

[Spencer Yost]

I just recently heard this and thought I had heard something new and interesting.   Turns out it is an old trope used to explain exponential growth -  a phrase we heard a thousand times this month regarding the pandemic.  But what does exponential growth really look like? 

Let’s say I promise to give you 1 million antique tractors. Or I could give you one antique tractor today, then two tomorrow, and four the next day, and so on doubling them every day for a month. Just a month that’s all. Which one would you take?  Most would grab the million.

But that’s the wrong route:  You would have over *1 billion* antique tractors by the end of the month if you chose the later.(2 raised to the 30th power -1).   Trust me, If this ever happens I will be smart enough to offer you the deal on February 1 :-)

And that’s the lesson today for understanding exponential growth - something that has relevance in many biological phenomenon:  Whether it’s duckweed on a pond or viruses in the pandemic. Puts into perspective why social distancing and staying at home is so important.

So everyone be safe and stay socially isolated in our shops working on tractors!

Hope all is well with everyone,


Spencer 

Sent from my iPhone