[AT] Better build a bigger shed

[Jim Becker]

Your duckweed reminds me of an illustration I saw a couple days ago.

Say you put a lily pad in a pond.  The lily pad is capable of sprouting one 
more lily pad each day.  The pond is big enough that it will take 60 days 
for the pond to be completely covered with lily pads.

Given all the above, which day of the 1-60 will the pond reach 1% coverage? 
The answer is day 54.

Adding my own twist, here is another question.  If on day 2 you remove one 
of the two identical lily pads and put it in a second identical pond, what 
day will BOTH ponds be completely covered?  It would be day 61.

Jim Becker

-----Original Message----- 
From: Spencer Yost
Sent: Friday, March 27, 2020 11:47 PM
To: at at lists.antique-tractor.com
Subject: [AT] Better build a bigger shed

I just recently heard this and thought I had heard something new and 
interesting.   Turns out it is an old trope used to explain exponential 
growth -  a phrase we heard a thousand times this month regarding the 
pandemic.  But what does exponential growth really look like?

Let’s say I promise to give you 1 million antique tractors. Or I could give 
you one antique tractor today, then two tomorrow, and four the next day, and 
so on doubling them every day for a month. Just a month that’s all. Which 
one would you take?  Most would grab the million.

But that’s the wrong route:  You would have over *1 billion* antique 
tractors by the end of the month if you chose the later.(2 raised to the 
30th power -1).   Trust me, If this ever happens I will be smart enough to 
offer you the deal on February 1 :-)

And that’s the lesson today for understanding exponential growth - something 
that has relevance in many biological phenomenon:  Whether it’s duckweed on 
a pond or viruses in the pandemic. Puts into perspective why social 
distancing and staying at home is so important.

So everyone be safe and stay socially isolated in our shops working on 
tractors!

Hope all is well with everyone,


Spencer

Sent from my iPhone
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