[AT] Lumber prices

[Cecil Bearden]

Not necessarily, but the weather has postponed both harvest of last 
years crops and this years planting.  The wet cold weather has planting 
of corn and soybeans behind by at least 2 weeks.  The cold ground will 
delay sprouting also.  This will put the growing season into the usual 
harvest time and then planting is delayed again.  This will raise grain 
prices.  The massive cold in the winter has put a lot of wheat behind 
the curve also.  The ground was so cold when we started last year, that 
no-till acres were really behind.   There are a lot of no-till farmers 
now, and no-till creates a much cooler soil temp.  Last summer was 
humid, but not as hot as usual.  Then we have this never ending winter. 
Agriculture is going to take a hit this year from the weather. Then 
Nitrogen Fertilizer here is $545/ton for 46-0-0.  Last fall it was 
$250.  At the rate I usually apply Fertilizer, it was $34/acre for 
fertilizer.  Add in the $20/acre for seed, and the $16/acre last fall 
for fertilizer.   That is $70/acre before we get anything in a bale.  
For me there was no winter wheat pasture, so all I will get is hay.  We 
usually get 2 bales/ acre.  So I have $35/bale in crop inputs.  The 
going rate for cutting and baling is $25/bale.  I have not figured what 
it costs me, so I just go with the custom rate.  So I have $60/bale in 
the hay I get off my wheat field if I can get it in the bale....  It 
looks like this year we will be very lucky to get 1 bale per acre.  If 
we get rain in the next week,  there is a possibility that the 
fertilizer will kick off and get some growth.  a lot of the seed I sowed 
last fall is just now coming up.  This is what i was referring to when I 
said the ground was cold..  It was also very dry at sowing time last fall...

Cecil


On 4/23/2021 8:34 AM, cgs wrote:
> Are we near the fringe of 'survival', as where a farmer has to eat 
> next year's seeds to stay alive?
>
> On 4/23/21 9:12 AM, Stephen Offiler wrote:
>> I can see where you'd call it greed, and I am not necessarily 
>> disagreeing with you, Bo, but there's a lot of moving parts here.
>>
>> Look at it from the standpoint of the family that owns the local 
>> lumber yard.  They have bills to pay - maybe the yard still has a 
>> mortgage, and there's electricity, payroll, benefits, taxes, etc.  
>> They probably do OK when business is normal, say there's a million 
>> board feet going out the door at $1/bdft, so they bring in a million 
>> dollars.  Point is that most of it goes to paying those bills I just 
>> mentioned.  But what about now?  There is a lumber shortage.  They 
>> can't get lumber as easily any more.  They might be able to move only 
>> half a million board feet, but those bills are still there, so they 
>> need to put the price up to $2/bd ft to bring in a million dollars to 
>> pay the bills.
>>
>> SO
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Apr 23, 2021 at 8:59 AM Bo Hinch <bohinch at gmail.com 
>> <mailto:bohinch at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>
>>     I don't necessarily agree with what the video is representing .
>>     In my area ( Sulphur Louisiana ) , lumber prices doubled and
>>     sometimes tripled from one week till the next week . It can be
>>     blamed on hurricanes , which we went through back to back last
>>     year , or forest fires last year but my thoughts are people being
>>     greedy and ripping us off and there is NOTHING we can do except
>>     pay the price , or , do without . Same thing with the steel
>>     building components , prices tripled with-in two weeks . Just my
>>     opinion of how we are being taken advantage of .
>>
>>     On Thu, Apr 22, 2021 at 11:36 PM Roger Moffat
>>     <rogerkiwi at gmail.com <mailto:rogerkiwi at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>
>>         Saw this on Facebook this evening - seems to sum up the
>>         situation
>>
>>
>>
>>>         On Apr 22, 2021, at 4:42 AM, Stephen Offiler
>>>         <soffiler at gmail.com <mailto:soffiler at gmail.com>> wrote:
>>>
>>>         I happened across this video just a few days ago. Several
>>>         factors, but the central theme boils down to basic supply
>>>         and demand.
>>>
>>>         https://youtu.be/3Ssa7yooX3k
>>>
>>>         SO
>>>
>>>
>>>         On Wed, Apr 21, 2021 at 11:03 PM John Maddock
>>>         <agtronixjv at bigpond.com <mailto:agtronixjv at bigpond.com>> wrote:
>>>         Supply and demand ?  Maybe!
>>>
>>>         https://www.timberbiz.com.au/us-lumber-prices-soar-demand-is-high-but-stumpage-is-static/
>>>
>>>         JV
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>         ------ Original Message ------
>>>         From: "Mike M" <meulenms at gmx.com <mailto:meulenms at gmx.com>>
>>>         To: "Antique tractor email discussion group"
>>>         <at at lists.antique-tractor.com
>>>         <mailto:at at lists.antique-tractor.com>>
>>>         Sent: Thursday, 22 Apr, 2021 At 12:18 PM
>>>         Subject: [AT] Lumber prices
>>>
>>>         What the heck is going on with lumber prices?  I needed a
>>>         sheet of OSB
>>>         which was once $10 a is now $35 a sheet?
>>>
>>>
>>>         Mike M
>>>
>>>         --
>>>         This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus
>>>         software.
>>>         https://www.avast.com/antivirus
>>>
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> -- 
> Charlie
>
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