[AT] Better build a bigger shed

[Gene Dotson]

The example that comes to mind with me. several years ago. A group I was
with attended a Christmas candle lighting ceremony. I would estimate that
attendance would approach 2,000 people. Each person had an unlighted
candle. The ceremony start by the minister giving a prayer, then he lit the
cancel of the closest person, who then lit 2 people next to them, then
second 2 lit their two. Of course I have no figures of it, but was amazed
how fast every one had a lit candle. Really lit up the group.

                                                         Gene



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On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 12:47 AM Spencer Yost <spencer at rdfarms.com> wrote:

> I just recently heard this and thought I had heard something new and
> interesting.   Turns out it is an old trope used to explain exponential
> growth -  a phrase we heard a thousand times this month regarding the
> pandemic.  But what does exponential growth really look like?
>
> Let’s say I promise to give you 1 million antique tractors. Or I could
> give you one antique tractor today, then two tomorrow, and four the next
> day, and so on doubling them every day for a month. Just a month that’s
> all. Which one would you take?  Most would grab the million.
>
> But that’s the wrong route:  You would have over *1 billion* antique
> tractors by the end of the month if you chose the later.(2 raised to the
> 30th power -1).   Trust me, If this ever happens I will be smart enough to
> offer you the deal on February 1 :-)
>
> And that’s the lesson today for understanding exponential growth -
> something that has relevance in many biological phenomenon:  Whether it’s
> duckweed on a pond or viruses in the pandemic. Puts into perspective why
> social distancing and staying at home is so important.
>
> So everyone be safe and stay socially isolated in our shops working on
> tractors!
>
> Hope all is well with everyone,
>
>
> Spencer
>
> Sent from my iPhone
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