<div dir="ltr">The example that comes to mind with me. several years ago. A group I was with attended a Christmas candle lighting ceremony. I would estimate that attendance would approach 2,000 people. Each person had an unlighted candle. The ceremony start by the minister giving a prayer, then he lit the cancel of the closest person, who then lit 2 people next to them, then second 2 lit their two. Of course I have no figures of it, but was amazed how fast every one had a lit candle. Really lit up the group.<div> </div><div> Gene</div><div><br></div><div><br></div></div><div id="DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2"><br>
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</table><a href="#DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2" width="1" height="1"></a></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, Mar 28, 2020 at 12:47 AM Spencer Yost <<a href="mailto:spencer@rdfarms.com">spencer@rdfarms.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">I just recently heard this and thought I had heard something new and interesting. Turns out it is an old trope used to explain exponential growth - a phrase we heard a thousand times this month regarding the pandemic. But what does exponential growth really look like? <br>
<br>
Let’s say I promise to give you 1 million antique tractors. Or I could give you one antique tractor today, then two tomorrow, and four the next day, and so on doubling them every day for a month. Just a month that’s all. Which one would you take? Most would grab the million.<br>
<br>
But that’s the wrong route: You would have over *1 billion* antique tractors by the end of the month if you chose the later.(2 raised to the 30th power -1). Trust me, If this ever happens I will be smart enough to offer you the deal on February 1 :-)<br>
<br>
And that’s the lesson today for understanding exponential growth - something that has relevance in many biological phenomenon: Whether it’s duckweed on a pond or viruses in the pandemic. Puts into perspective why social distancing and staying at home is so important.<br>
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So everyone be safe and stay socially isolated in our shops working on tractors!<br>
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Hope all is well with everyone,<br>
<br>
<br>
Spencer <br>
<br>
Sent from my iPhone<br>
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