[AT] quiet list(wheat prices)

Rob Wilson rowilson at wildblue.net
Sat Feb 23 12:54:05 PST 2008


Considering the cost of fertilizer alone I don't see how a guy could make it
on corn going below $3.00. Talked to a friend of mine that farms 1,600 acres
in Western Ohio and he just got his fertilizer bill, $190,000. He was just
happy he made enough from last year to pay for it. Now for the price of
seed......
Rob 

-----Original Message-----
From: at-bounces at lists.antique-tractor.com
[mailto:at-bounces at lists.antique-tractor.com] On Behalf Of Francis Robinson
Sent: Friday, February 22, 2008 4:42 PM
To: Antique tractor email discussion group
Subject: Re: [AT] quiet list(wheat prices)



--On Friday, February 22, 2008 11:57 AM -0600 Ralph Goff <alfg at sasktel.net>
wrote:

>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Richard Fink Sr" <nancydick at pennswoods.net>
> To: "Antique tractor email discussion group"
> <at at lists.antique-tractor.com> Sent: Friday, February 22, 2008 9:14 AM
> Subject: Re: [AT] quiet list(wheat prices)
>
>
>> Ralf and others on this ethanol fling. Thay are building a plant to 
>> turn it to fuel[corn] not to far from me.[ Clearfield] 20-30 miles it 
>> is in the high millions to build and really out in the country. From 
>> what little i have read on this stuff it can't be piped must be 
>> hauled in special trailers. Don't make much sense to me unless they 
>> build a oil  processing plant near it.
>
> Richard, I have read recently that due to the higher grain prices 
> there have  been several of these ethanol plant projects put on hold. 
> Expensive grain  really cuts into the viability of producing ethanol. 
> Plus, the farmer has no  problem selling his grain into the food 
> market for a good price so the  ethanol plants have to compete with 
> that. So far its all good news for the  farmer but no telling how long it
will last.
>
> Ralph in Sask.
>
========================================



	I think that it will all find a balance point eventually. It will be
much like the way many of us over many years have switched heating fuel
types several times. Unless something goes silly we tend to chug along with
it as long as our system is working good. When the heating system needs
replacing we then look at what is the best choice at that time. When things
go silly 
everybody puts in a woodstove...   :-)
	High grain prices will throttle down ethanol but when they drop back
down to a level that will pencil out then it will pick up again. The main
thing is that we need to develop a whole bunch of options instead of putting
all of our eggs in one basket (especially a basket that somebody else owns).

There is not nor should there be any one energy answer but instead a flock
of options and the fewer of those that Mega McGreedy can run through a meter
the better.

	I do worry about some of these guys that are spending a million
dollars of borrowed money to re-equip a big operation and paying for the
stuff over 6 or 7 years. This paper house could burn down in two years and
while I don't expect corn to ever see $1.50 again in my lifetime $3 corn
will sure struggle to make payments based on $6 corn...
	This is a good time to do some "reasonable" upgrading of tired
equipment and fix up buildings and infrastructure but a wise man will avoid
"shiny 
paint/bigger than the neighbor's" fever.   :-)

	I love wood pellets and I am considering investing in a pellet mill.
No meter, no shystery business practices and no wildly fluctuating markets.
It can do a 2 to 3 year payoff between my several pellet stoves and my
neighbor's stove. Some of my grown kids may also end up with pellet stoves. 
Its not for everybody but it pencils out very well for us. In good weather a
local tree trimmer drops off 3 to 5 tons of chipped limbs most weeks. We use
them for some landscaping but mostly for compost now.



--
"farmer"


Francis Robinson
Central Indiana, USA
Robinson at svs.net
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