[AT] quiet list(wheat prices)

[Francis Robinson]

--On Friday, February 22, 2008 11:57 AM -0600 Ralph Goff <alfg at sasktel.net> 
wrote:

>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Richard Fink Sr" <nancydick at pennswoods.net>
> To: "Antique tractor email discussion group"
> <at at lists.antique-tractor.com> Sent: Friday, February 22, 2008 9:14 AM
> Subject: Re: [AT] quiet list(wheat prices)
>
>
>> Ralf and others on this ethanol fling. Thay are building a plant to
>> turn it to fuel[corn] not to far from me.[ Clearfield] 20-30 miles it
>> is in the high millions to build and really out in the country. From
>> what little i have read on this stuff it can't be piped must be
>> hauled in special trailers. Don't make much sense to me unless they
>> build a oil  processing plant near it.
>
> Richard, I have read recently that due to the higher grain prices there
> have  been several of these ethanol plant projects put on hold. Expensive
> grain  really cuts into the viability of producing ethanol. Plus, the
> farmer has no  problem selling his grain into the food market for a good
> price so the  ethanol plants have to compete with that. So far its all
> good news for the  farmer but no telling how long it will last.
>
> Ralph in Sask.
>
========================================



	I think that it will all find a balance point eventually. It will be much 
like the way many of us over many years have switched heating fuel types 
several times. Unless something goes silly we tend to chug along with it as 
long as our system is working good. When the heating system needs replacing 
we then look at what is the best choice at that time. When things go silly 
everybody puts in a woodstove...   :-)
	High grain prices will throttle down ethanol but when they drop back down 
to a level that will pencil out then it will pick up again. The main thing 
is that we need to develop a whole bunch of options instead of putting all 
of our eggs in one basket (especially a basket that somebody else owns). 
There is not nor should there be any one energy answer but instead a flock 
of options and the fewer of those that Mega McGreedy can run through a 
meter the better.

	I do worry about some of these guys that are spending a million dollars of 
borrowed money to re-equip a big operation and paying for the stuff over 6 
or 7 years. This paper house could burn down in two years and while I don't 
expect corn to ever see $1.50 again in my lifetime $3 corn will sure 
struggle to make payments based on $6 corn...
	This is a good time to do some "reasonable" upgrading of tired equipment 
and fix up buildings and infrastructure but a wise man will avoid "shiny 
paint/bigger than the neighbor's" fever.   :-)

	I love wood pellets and I am considering investing in a pellet mill. No 
meter, no shystery business practices and no wildly fluctuating markets. It 
can do a 2 to 3 year payoff between my several pellet stoves and my 
neighbor's stove. Some of my grown kids may also end up with pellet stoves. 
Its not for everybody but it pencils out very well for us. In good weather 
a local tree trimmer drops off 3 to 5 tons of chipped limbs most weeks. We 
use them for some landscaping but mostly for compost now.



--
"farmer"


Francis Robinson
Central Indiana, USA
Robinson at svs.net