[AT] Statistics In Tractor Manufacturing Was Bicycle Program

Fri Sep 20 02:44:09 PDT 2019

Agreed, Jim, that's also a possible scenario.  Something is deforming
plastically, and there could be some failure of the head material in
compression.  And, I usually default to the same competence assumption -
"some engineer must have measured that".

SO

On Thu, Sep 19, 2019 at 4:42 PM Jim Becker <mr.jebecker at gmail.com> wrote:

> I agree the whole head isn’t going to shrink.  However, I can imagine the
> pressure from the head bolts acting on the overheated head to cause some
> displacement of the head material.  When cooled back to a normal
> temperature, the dimension from where the head bolts contact the head to
> the gasket surface could be reduced.  This could be confirmed by
> measurement before and after.
>
> Having not seen the actual wording of the bulletin, I could imagine it
> stating something to that effect.  I would presume someone at Satoh made
> such measurements.
>
> Jim Becker
>
> *From:* Stephen Offiler
> *Sent:* Thursday, September 19, 2019 2:23 PM
> *To:* Antique Tractor Email Discussion Group
> *Subject:* Re: [AT] Statistics In Tractor Manufacturing Was Bicycle
> Program
>
> I don't buy that, Cecil.  I don't think the head shrinks regardless of
> what the service bulletin said.  I think it expands when overheated,
> putting a permanent stretch in the head bolts, resulting in insufficient
> torque when it cools down.  Retorque it, then overheat it again, and they
> stretch again, and again.
>
> Steve O.
>
> On Thu, Sep 19, 2019 at 9:27 AM Cecil Bearden <crbearden at copper.net>
> wrote:
>
>> Back in the early 70's when I was working at the tractor shop, we were
>> the Satoh tractor dealer.  The tractor had an aluminum head on a cast iron
>> block w/ steel studs.  we sold it to a couple of sisters who had been suing
>> a Cub Farmall with a belly mower.  The Satoh would get grass built  up in
>> the radiator and overheat.  When it cooled down, the head would have to be
>> re-torqued.  The first couple of times we replaced the gasket.  The last 2
>> times we just re-torqued the bolts.  Later we got a service bulletin that
>> stated the head would shrink when it overheated.  Maybe that is the reason
>> the rocker arm bracket gets loose on the Kawasaki..
>>
>> In our case the sisters filed a lawsuit and we had to go find another
>> Cub Farmall to replace the one they traded in.   The boss convinced the
>> purchaser of the used Cub Farmall to trade for the Satoh that overheated
>> and that owner was very happy as he did not mow Bermuda grass.
>>
>> Cecil
>> On 9/18/2019 7:28 AM, Jim Becker wrote:
>>
>> Henry, do you also find the rocker arm bracket bolt loose when the push
>> rods get bent?  As Steve pointed out, it seems unlikely that sticky valves
>> would result in 2 bent push rods at/near the same time.  My knowledge of
>> the Kawasaki V-twin consists of what I read in this thread.  But I wonder
>> if the failure mode is overheating allowing the rocker arm bracket to get
>> loose, allowing the push rods to get loose and bend.  Maybe the fix is to
>> add a bend-over tab type retainer to the bolt.
>>
>> Jim Becker
>>
>> *From:* Stephen Offiler
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, September 18, 2019 3:44 AM
>> *To:* Antique Tractor Email Discussion Group
>> *Subject:* Re: [AT] Statistics In Tractor Manufacturing Was Bicycle
>> Program
>>
>> Henry, is yours is a Kawasaki V-twin?  Are you just replacing the bent
>> pushrods?   Based on the Internet chatter I've read on the lawn forums, the
>> root cause is sticky valves, and the permanent solution is a new head
>> (comes complete with valve guides and seats) and new valves.  That's what
>> I'm doing right now, reusing only the valve springs, keepers, and rocker
>> arms.  In my case, it wasn't even a question, because my head gasket was
>> blown, so that head is certainly warped too.
>>
>> These engines are sensitive to proper cooling airflow.  Again with the
>> lawn forums, seems I'm far from the only one who has had an overheat
>> without realizing it.  Mostly it's grass clippings that cause the problem
>> although mine was mouse nest.  People talk about removing the shrouds every
>> X hours to clean the fins.    Actually a really easy job.  The bolt holes
>> in the main shroud are slots, you just loosen the fasteners and pull it
>> straight off.
>>
>> SO
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Sep 17, 2019 at 9:03 PM Henry Miller <hank at millerfarm.com> wrote:
>>
>>> I've had the bent pushrod 3 times now in mine, it has always been both,
>>> though I too can't figure out why both should go at the same time.
>>>
>>> --
>>>   Henry Miller
>>>   hank at millerfarm.com
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, Sep 17, 2019, at 8:27 AM, Stephen Offiler wrote:
>>>
>>> Mine is a long story.  All my stories are long ;-)
>>>
>>> Gravely zero-turn with 24HP Kawasaki V-twin.  I keep it maintained by
>>> the book, and use it pretty hard but not abused.  It ends up being stored
>>> in places where mice are just going to be present, no way to eradicate them
>>> (and yes there are cats around).  Quite a while ago, could have been early
>>> '18 or back even further in '17, I was checking the air filter (which I do
>>> roughly every 3-4 mows) and found it had a huge hole chewed in it.  That
>>> means I probably ran the machine unfiltered a couple times.  Suspicious and
>>> worried, I pulled the shrouds, and found the #1 cylinder fins just packed
>>> with slow-roasted mouse-nest.  Most likely, I ran it a couple times with
>>> impaired cooling on that cylinder, and it overheated.  I cleaned it all out
>>> and went back to mowing.  It ran well, plenty of power, but I did notice an
>>> increase in oil consumption.  I wondered if that was the overheating, or
>>> the ingestion of unfiltered dusty air.  I didn't really feel like tearing
>>> it down so I just kept running it.  And, with an eye on oil level, it did
>>> fine for 1-2 years, until just recently.  It coughed and started running
>>> poorly.  Drove it into the shop and found #1 was barely warm; it was only
>>> running on #2.  Tore into #1 and found both rods bent plus the bolt holding
>>> the "Rocker arm bracket" was very loose.  What the internet tells me is
>>> that overheat leads to sticky valves and when a valve sticks the pushrod
>>> gets out of place and bends.   That sounds very plausible but I'm still not
>>> sure how I bent BOTH of them and how that loose rocker bracket happened.
>>> Oh and the head gasket is blown on that side, which probably explains the
>>> increased oil consumption.  I am replacing the whole head, pushrods,
>>> valves, valve seals, gaskets.  Cost about $300 in parts online.  Waiting
>>> right now for parts to arrive and the grass is still growing.
>>>
>>> SO
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, Sep 17, 2019 at 8:46 AM Cecil Bearden <crbearden at copper.net>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> The only time I bent a push rod was when I over revved the engine.  It
>>> was on a 292 Ford V-8 in an old 57 4wd F100.  I got stuck and had to give
>>> it the gas to get out.  I straightened the rod out on an anvil and it i
>>> still running...
>>> Cecil
>>> On 9/17/2019 6:03 AM, Henry Miller wrote:
>>>
>>> My zero turn is in the shop with the same bent pushrods issue. Second
>>> time this summer. I'm thinking about a different engine... I have the
>>> replacement rods, but I found a small spring by the valves that doesn't
>>> come from anywhere obvious. I'll have to tear into it more now to see what
>>> else is wrong.
>>>
>>> --
>>>   Henry Miller
>>>   hank at millerfarm.com
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Sep 16, 2019, at 3:51 PM, Stephen Offiler wrote:
>>>
>>> Mike M - that just happened to me yesterday!  I've got a Gravely
>>> zero-turn with Kawasaki V-twin that bent a pushrod at 306 hours (known
>>> issue, easy-ish fix).  It is sitting right now waiting for parts to
>>> arrive.  Yesterday, I was walking past and happened to look down and saw
>>> 600 and something hours on the meter, which was odd but didn't quite
>>> register until it clicked over another tenth digit while I was watching.
>>> That happens once every 6 minutes, so I got real lucky to see it.  I guess
>>> the key got bumped somehow during disassembly  Now, all the service
>>> reminders are saying "CHG NOW".  I'm doing engine oil and air filter now
>>> anyway, but losing the service reminder on the hydro units bugs me.  It
>>> added 337 hours sitting still (divide by 24 to see how long I've been
>>> waiting for parts, and therefore how long the grass is getting!).  Since
>>> I'm not likely to ever sell this machine, I don't really care that much
>>> about the fake hours.
>>>
>>> Steve O.
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Sep 16, 2019 at 4:09 PM Mike M <meulenms at gmx.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> I have a Scag zero turn that I bought new, I put about 350 hours on it
>>> over the course of several years.  When I parked it this last fall, I
>>> accidentally left the key on, so when I went to start it this Spring I had
>>> 3500 hours on it. Fortunately my daughter works at the dealer so I was able
>>> to buy a new one.
>>>
>>> Mike M
>>>
>>>
>>> On 9/16/2019 2:42 PM, Spencer Yost wrote:
>>>
>>> New tractors have hours embedded in the computer. Replacement computers
>>> are easily spotted by the metadata in the computer.   So for approximately
>>> the last 10-15 years we have a reliable indicator of usage or computer
>>> replacement/tampering on most models.
>>>
>>> However, being able to obtain the equipment and software necessary to
>>> read the computer is still a sticking point and at the heart of the right
>>> to repair lawsuits going around.   These lawsuits are extending to other
>>> equipment and devices. So farmers were actually at the forefront of this
>>> movement.
>>>
>>> Ok fine print for the following:
>>>
>>> This is not a political statement.   I absolutely positively never
>>> endorse any presidential candidate publicly on this list nor should the
>>> following be construed as support for the  candidates mentioned.  I
>>> only add the following statements and link as a way to let y’all know that
>>> our frustrations with equipment are being heard by some.  Ok enough with
>>> the fine print:
>>>
>>> Elizabeth Warren added support for the right to repair movement as one
>>> of her written policy planks - To my knowledge the only one but the
>>> movement should grow to the point candidates probably won’t be able to
>>> ignore it.  Here’s Warren’s policy paper on agriculture in general but
>>> in that she specifically mentions right to repair:
>>>
>>>
>>> https://medium.com/@teamwarren/leveling-the-playing-field-for-americas-family-farmers-823d1994f067
>>>
>>>
>>> I am watching the right to repair movement closely.
>>>
>>> Spencer
>>>
>>>
>>> Sent from my iPhone
>>>
>>> On Sep 16, 2019, at 10:29 AM, Al Jones <farmallsupera1 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>> No.  If your tachometer goes bad, you get a new one with 0000.0 hours.
>>>
>>> Al
>>>
>>> On Sun, Sep 15, 2019 at 11:52 PM Cecil Bearden <crbearden at copper.net>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Probably not, and the mileage on the title of an auto or truck is
>>> nothing that can be relied on...   I used to be able to tell by the wear
>>> on floorboards, rust, paint scratches etc if a trucks mileage was
>>> right.  Tractors are a different animal.  Usually just change the tires
>>> and if repainted, change the hoses and belts, new seat and cab interior
>>> and it is a new tractor.
>>>
>>> Cecil
>>>
>>> On 9/15/2019 8:36 PM, Jack wrote:
>>> > Tractors are not titled. Automobiles and trucks are. When you sell an
>>> auto, you record the mileage at time of sale and your signature. Is it even
>>> illegal to alter the hour meter on a tractor?
>>> >
>>> > -----Original Message-----
>>> > From: AT <at-bounces at lists.antique-tractor.com> On Behalf Of Cecil
>>> Bearden
>>> > Sent: Saturday, September 14, 2019 7:33 PM
>>> > To: at at lists.antique-tractor.com
>>> > Subject: Re: [AT] Statistics In Tractor Manufacturing Was Bicycle
>>> Program
>>> >
>>> > The New Holland Money Pit is what it is because somewhere in its
>>> history the hour meter was turned back.  New tires were installed and it
>>> was made to look like a 5 yr old tractor with about 200 hrs per year.
>>> > Cecil
>>> >
>>> > On 9/14/2019 10:26 AM, James Peck wrote:
>>> >> Some years ago I did participate in an academic Statistical Quality
>>> Control course. Much of the course involved the Weibull Distribution. If I
>>> remember correctly, the Weibull Curve predicted the lifespan of a
>>> manufactured assembly such as a tractor.  It appears to be a gift from the
>>> mathematicians.
>>> >>
>>> >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weibull_distribution
>>> >>
>>> >> The same distribution probably predicts that Cecil’s New Holland
>>> money pit will continue to be so and will suffer an early demise.
>>> >>
>>> >> [Stephen Offiler] I never took a whole semester of Statistics.
>>> Instead, we had a course called Engineering Experimentation, which was
>>> heavy on experiment design and statistical data analysis.  That gave me a
>>> very good appreciation for the practical application of statistics.   Out
>>> in the real world, on-the-job training programs in quality control
>>> principles in manufacturing (Deming, Juran, Lean Six Sigma) continued to
>>> solidify the practical applications.
>>> >>
>>> >> [Cecil Bearden] Steve: I nearly flunked statistics I only passed
>>> because I was a graduating senior.  However, I did flunk Rocks & Clods 2124
>>> and had to find another 4 hours to graduate.   Then 35 years later I retire
>>> as a Geotechnical engineer designing foundations. !!!
>>> >>
>>> >> [Stephen Offiler] I'm not sure if that is an interesting statistic,
>>> or simply predictable statistically.  All you just said is that a
>>> bell-curve distribution for 2-year degrees overlaps a bell-curve
>>> distribution for 4-year degrees.
>>> >>
>>> >> [ James Peck] The interesting statistic is that some technical 2 year
>>> programs have higher starting incomes than many 4 year degree programs.
>>> People who complete such a program can later take a 2+2 program to get a
>>> four year degree if they choose.
>>> >>
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